Where Does Google Trends Data Come From?

by tyler on 12/17/2007

I’m currently working on an international pay per click campaign for a startup. I turn to Google Trends to get an idea of the search volume in different countries. I don’t take these numbers as 100% correct, but I assume they are in the ballpark. Well, its not in the ballpark, its not even on the same planet. Here is the regional breakdown of search volume for “Keyword” per Google Trends. India has about 85% of the search volume of the US and Canada has roughly 50% the volume.

To test the potential conversion of these international campaigns, I ran a short 3 week test. The international campaigns were replicas of the campaign I run that targets the US market. Each of these campaigns are geotargeted to the specific country (and we all know how well geotargeting works).

Above you can see that India has about 85% of the search volume of the US and Canada has roughly 50% the volume for “Keyword” (I was asked to keep the keyword anonymous). During my test for conversion I got the chance to see actually search volume for the keyword. The US market produced 14,612 impressions in 3 weeks. India produced 896 impressions during the same time period. A mere 6.13% the search volume of the US where Google Trends showed it should be around 85%. Canada came in with 985 impressions. A slightly larger 6.74% the search volume of the US compared to 50% per Google Trends. Canada was second to the US where India is second in Google Trends.

I understand that Google Trends is not exact but these numbers are not even close. Google has reason to show that there is more search volume in other countries ihoping that you will expand into those markets. Since our keyword list is larger than one word, the international launch will happen. Unfortunately this trend of extreme over estimates are found on multiple keywords.

There are 2 comments in this article:

  1. 20/12/2007william says:

    Are you sure you are comparing like with like? For example you will get different results depending on whether you use quotes in your google trends data: example:
    my keyword, “my keyword”

    - will show a much smaller trend for the one in quotes.

    in other words, quotes are more accurate.

    However, I notice a lot of disparity between what, say, wordtracker reports and what google trends reports – so I am also diggin around for answers….

  2. 18/04/2008Ricky says:

    Impressions and Searches are 2 entirely different things, specially when it comes to Google.

    Google Adwords’ Content Network and Search Network have more penetration in US as compared to India. More US people are clicking on AdSense ads and thus, you get more impressions thru Content network. And talking about Search Network of Adwords, Search Network of Google comprises not only Ads served on Google Search Engine, but many of its Search partners who depend on Google’s Ad network for moneytization.

    So, you see…. Impressions and Searches are 2 entirely different things. Google tends to give you an estimate of searches via G Trends. And validating it on the grounds of above experiment is wrong.

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